News Summaries in August 2024

“Brazilian Judge Orders Suspension of X in Disinformation Battle,” Washington Post, August 30, 2024

 

Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered August 30 the suspension of X, formerly known as Twitter, in Latin America’s largest country. De Moraes took that step a day after X owner Elon Musk refused to meet his request that he station a representative of X in Brazil to respond to government requests to suspend accounts found to be spreading fake news. In refusing, Musk said anyone he appointed would be subject to the possibility of arrest. De Moraes also froze the bank accounts of Musk’s Starlink company in his unsuccessful effort to get Musk to appoint a representative. Musk accused him of being a dictator “cosplaying as a judge.” He said de Moraes is acting as a censor and is destroying democracy. The defenders of de Moraes see him as a champion of efforts to combat disinformation that undermines democracy. The decision didn’t immediately shut X down but could affect more than 20 million X users in Brazil, a country of 215 million people.

 

Nicaragua Shutters Another 169 Civil Society Groups as Purge Intensifies, Reuters, August 29, 2024

 

Nicaragua has banned 169 non-governmental organizations for failing to provide detailed statements about their finances. The move follows a ban on 1,500 organizations issued ten days previously, many of them religious groups (see August 21 story below). The latest batch includes Save the Children Canada, religious groups, livestock and agricultural organizations, and foundations fighting cancer and HIV/AIDS. “The move represents a further blow to civil society as part of a longstanding crackdown on groups viewed as hostile by President Daniel Ortega,” Reuters said. More than 4,000 non-governmental organizations have been closed since anti-government protests in 2018. “In many cases, their property or assets have been confiscated by the state.” 

“Daily Review, World Politics Review, Venezuela, August 16, 2024 – Another Venezuelan Election? (Posted out of chronological order to highlight it)

 

What sense would it make to hold another presidential election after the one on July 28 clearly convinced independent analysts that Venezuelan authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro lost in a landslide victory by opposition leader Edmundo González? Two leftist leaders, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Colombian President Gustavo Petro have proposed such a step. The strategy of Venezuela’s opposition  now is to apply domestic and international pressure to force Maduro to negotiate a democratic transition of power. But the big obstacle to that, says World Politics Review, “is that Maduro doesn’t seem like he’s being forced to do anything. He has the ability to repress protests – he’s shown as much in recent weeks – and has authoritarian allies that he can use to skirt international pressure.”  Lula and Petro believe another round of elections would be more likely to lead to an actual transition of power, even though that “is obviously unjust and less ideal.” Petro’s proposal includes incentives for Maduro like amnesty and the lifting of sanctions on Venezuela. “Holding another round of voting could be a way to keep domestic pressure on Maduro and maintain the international spotlight on his regime,” Word Politics Review says. Maduro reneged on a similar agreement last year that including such incentives except for amnesty. Still, there are no perfect solutions to the crisis in Venezuela, writes WPR columnist James Bosworth. “No matter what is being proposed, there will be strong arguments against it and plenty of reasons it probably won’t work. However, there is one action that absolutely won’t make any progress: Sitting around arguing against someone’s wrong answer.” 

“Maduro Intent on Third Term as 1,600 Perceived Opponents Languish in Cells,” The Guardian, August 26, 2024

 

Nicolás Maduro has declared that the decision of Venezuela’s supreme court that he is the lawful winner of the July 28 presidential election confirms the legitimacy of his continued rule. Many Venezuelans, independent analysts, and foreign leaders do not see it that way at all. They view his declaration as fraudulent, based on many analyses concluding he was a landslide loser. But questions of legitimacy aside, many analysts believe Maduro’s tactic “could work and that Maduro will manage to ride out the latest threat to his 11-year rule,” write Guardian reporters Tom Phillips and Clavel Rangel. After all, “he survived mass protests in 2017 and the botched 2019 attempt to topple him as well as one of the worst peacetime economic meltdowns in modern history.” Stanford University Latin American specialist Harold Trinkunas calls it a “high probability” that Maduro will start a third term next January. But his inauguration isn’t inevitable, he adds. A possible uprising can’t be discounted such as the one in Bangladesh that forced the prime minister to flee in a helicopter. Also possible: a gradual negotiated transition to democracy such as the one that ended the Pinochet military regime in Chile in 1990. He also notes the example of  Venezuelan dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez who in 1957 called a referendum to extend a regime notorious for unleashing the secret police on political enemies. That election was widely viewed as stolen and the following weeks were marked by popular mobilization, street protests and growing violence. The generals under him told him he had to go. But Maduro shows no sign of that. He has called a three-day conference in October to discuss plans for his next six-year term. Meanwhile, his security forces pay “spine-chilling visits” to targets such as  19-year-old law student Aixa Daniela Boada López, whose crime was to have protested Maduro’s claim to have won the election. She was taken away just past midnight on August 1 by black-clad agents who smashed their way in to the building where she was staying while panicked relatives looked on. Her future remains uncertain, and charges of “criminal association” and “terrorism” could lead to her spending decades in jail, the Guardian says. 

“Resorts on Spain’s Costa Brava Struggle With Invasion of Jellyfish as Seas Warm,” The Guardian, August 24, 2024

Between May and August almost 7,500 people on the Catalan coast sought medical attention for jellyfish stings, writes Guardian reporter Stephen Burgen. That’s up 41 percent compared to last year, an increase attributed to climate change and rising sea temperatures, which ease reproduction. “There’s no short-term solution because it’s about climate,” said Jose Maria Gili, a researcher at the Institute of Marine Science in Barcelona. “We’ll have to get used to sharing our beaches with jellyfish.” The stings are painful and are of particular concern for people with compromised immune systems. But most of the jellyfish along the Catalan coast are relatively harmless. However, two beaches in southern Catalonia in Tarragona were closed in July after Portuguese Man of War were spotted in the water. Their sting is especially painful. 

“US and 10 Latin American States Reject Nicolás Maduro’s Vote Certification,” The Guardian, August 24, 2024

 

Argentina, Costa Rica, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, the Dominican Republic along with the United States have rejected a decision August 23 by the Venezuelan Supreme Court confirming Nicolás Maduro as the winner of the July 28 presidential election. The court is without credibility because, in the words of Guardian reporter Tom Phillips, it is stacked with Maduro loyalists.” The rejection of the certification of President Nicolás Maduro as the winner was not confined to conservative governments.  Chile’s progressive president Gabriel Boric said the high court was “consolidating the fraud” of the Maduro government in claiming it had won when numerous analysts and foreign governments concluded the opposition had won in a landslide.  

“Mexico’s Judges Strike Over Proposed Overhaul,” New York Times, August 21, 2024

Federal judges voted August 19 to go on strike across Mexico against a proposed overhaul of the judiciary in which thousands of judges, including members of the Supreme Court, would stand for election rather than being appointed based on qualifications and training. The author of the plan, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, said it would cleanse the judiciary of corruption. But analysts have warned that the plan would “threaten judicial independence, violate international legal standards and undermine the rule of law,” said Times reporters Simon Romero and Emiliano Rodríguez Mega. Critics say the overhaul would erode checks on the executive branch and allow unqualified people to become judges. All 11 members of the Supreme Court and thousands of other federal and state judges could be forced out of their jobs. Juana Fuentes, who heads the organization of federal judges that spearheaded the strike vote, said López Obrador “has lost it.” She warned that “if this bill passes, we will be creating a regime of absolute power concentrated in one single person.” López Obrador aims to push the measure through Congress in September, his last month before recently elected Claudia Sheinbaum succeeds him as president. He is expected to have a large majority to do it. But “large pockets of resistance have coalesced in recent weeks,” the Times said. Some 55,000 federal court employees are expected to join the strike. That would close many courthouses, though exceptions could be made to allow rulings on urgent matters. 

“Nicaragua Clamps Down on 1,500 Nonprofit Groups,” New York Times, August 21, 2024

The Nicaraguan government August 19 declared 1,500 nonprofit organizations illegal, many of them evangelical religious groups associated with Baptist and Pentecostal churches. More than 5,000 nonprofit organizations have now been shut down by the country’s authoritarian government since 2018. Until now, President Daniel Ortega has targeted the Roman Catholic Church, but this latest action eliminates hundreds of churches led by evangelical pastors, wrote Times reporter Frances Robles. “This is an attack against religious freedom,” said Patricia Molina, a Nicaraguan lawyer who fled the country in 2021 and now lives in Texas. “All of their properties are going to be confiscated.” Another exiled lawyer, Félix Navarrete, a Catholic Church activist, said “one of the government’s biggest fears is that through religious leaders, the people of Nicaragua can have change.  They are trying to avoid that at all costs.”

 

“They Ran a Campaign of Rebellion in Hiding. And Now They Wait,” The New York Times, August 21, 2024

If “they take one step  outside their compound, they could be arrested and thrown in prison.” So writes Genevieve Glatsky of the Times in this account of top opposition aides in Venezuela trapped in the Argentine diplomatic residence in Caracas where they directed “one of the most consequential presidential campaigns in the country’s history.” The five aides organized a voter turnout drive that brought millions of voters to the polls in the July 28 presidential election. They also “mobilized thousands of monitors to collect tally sheets that could prove their candidate had won.” That effort convinced independent analysts and the United States and other  countries that opposition candidate Edmundo González won in a landslide despite the claims of President Nicolás Maduro that he was the victor. But the five remain trapped in the compound with Maduro still in power and waging a brutal crackdown on demonstrators protesting his claims. The five first sought shelter after two leaders of the opposition party, Vente Venezuela, were arrested on March 20 and sent to Helicoide, a notorious detention center. Gabriel Volpi, deputy chief of the Argentine mission, agreed to take them in. As they worked around the clock on the election, they felt lucky to have found refuge, but “described living in a state of constant tension and uncertainty knowing that at any moment their circumstances could change.” Heightening the tension, Volpi, their protector, left the residence after two months to take a scheduled retirement. The night after the election, police appeared outside the residence, and the aides spent three nights watching them standing outside, sometimes dangling handcuffs. On August 1, Maduro ordered Argentine diplomats to leave the country. But Brazil assumed responsibility for the embassy and the asylum seekers, who want  permission to leave the country. The police left, but the aides remain inside as the crackdown rages around them. “These are very long nights of great pain,” said one of the five aides. “It is madness what is happening.” 

“Venezuelans Stage Global Protests, Seek Recognition of Election Victory,” Washington Post, August 17, 2024

 

Despite days of severe repressive tactics used by security forces, thousands of demonstrators protested in the streets of Venezuela August 17, demanding that  Nicolás Maduro accept that he lost the country’s July 28 presidential election.  Venezuelans in more than 373 cities around the world also joined in the protests, Post reporters said. Streets in Caracas were heavily guarded by the military and police. However, few in uniform could be seen near the center of the opposition demonstrations. That raised concerns “about whether state agents might be in the crowd in civilian clothing,” the story said. Despite detentions and disappearances of opposition supporters, demonstrators in Caracas shouted that they were not afraid.  “Today the world knows what we Venezuelans are made of,” opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said in a video message. “Now comes a new stage. We have to stand firm and united. They try to scare us, to divide us, to paralyze us, but they cannot.” Machado has been in hiding but "emerged in the crowd in a black hood and stepped onto a truck carrying opposition political leaders through the rally," Post reporters said.

“Prosecutors Accuse Argentina’s Former President of Beating First Lady,” New York Times, August 15, 2024

Argentine prosecutors have accused Alberto Fernández of causing “grievous bodily harm” and making “coercive threats” against his partner Fabiola Yáñez while he was president. A judge will decide whether to indict Fernández, who was president from 2019 to 2023, on the two charges, which could lead to his imprisonment. Fernández told the publication El País “I’ve never hit a woman.” Prosecutors said that while the couple was living in the presidential palace it was common for Fernández to slap Yáñez so hard it left her cheek burning. On one occasion he allegedly punched her causing a black eye. He’s also accused of kicking Yáñez in the stomach in August 2021, knowing she could be pregnant. Yáñez has said he controlled her movements and forced her to have an abortion in 2016 when the procedure was still illegal. The couple was together for more than a decade after breaking up recently. They never married but have a child together. “The former first lady said she decided to speak out despite receiving numerous threats from Mr. Fernández and people close to him,” wrote Times reporters Jack Nicas and Daniel Politi. 

“U.N. Report Calls Out Venezuela Election for Level of Transparency,” Washington Post, August 15, 2024

 

A United Nations panel of experts, in a report originally meant only for the eyes of  U.N. leadership, said that Venezuela’s decision to announce the outcome of the July 28 presidential election without publicizing details  of the underlying vote “has no precedent in contemporary democratic elections.” The actual election day was “logistically well organized,” the panel said. The electoral council was able to detect and resolve  “a large majority of small technical glitches,” the panel said. The council said electronic transmission of the results of the voting abruptly stopped hours after the polls closed because of a terrorist cyberattack. But the panel said it couldn’t verify external attacks because the council canceled three scheduled post-electoral audits, including of the communication system. Jorge Rodríguez, head of the government-controlled national assembly, said the U.N. panel was “filled with trash,” that its report should not have been made public, and proposed a ban on international observers in future elections, said Post reporter Samantha Schmidt. 

“Lula Says He Doesn’t Yet Recognize Maduro as Winner of Venezuela Election,” The Guardian, August 15, 2024

The president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, said he has not yet accepted Nicolás Maduro’s claim that he won Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election. Lula was accused in an August 4 Wall Street Journal opinion piece (see story below) of siding with Maduro and aiding him in stealing the election, which the Venezuelan opposition along with a number of independent analysts say was actually won in a landslide by opposition candidate Edmundo González. In an interview August 15 with Brazilian radio, Lula said of Maduro concerning the election results, “he knows he owes an explanation to Brazilian society and the world. He knows this.” Critics say  Maduro is faking the results. Wrote  Guardian reporter Tom Phillips: “Brazil has stopped short of recognizing González’s claim to have won the election, as countries including Argentina, Uruguay and the US have done, but clearly its government has  misgivings over Maduro’s widely doubted claim to victory.” Lula said he does not want to react in a “hasty” manner. He suggested as solutions a new election or the formation of a unity government that includes the Maduro government and the opposition. Colombian President Gustavo Petro also suggested such a power-sharing pact. Phillips noted that the Venezuelan opposition “plans to return to the streets on Saturday [August 17] for fresh protests despite a harsh government crackdown that has seen more than 1,300 people detained and more than 20 killed.”

“Amid Venezuelan Tumult, U.S. Wants Latin American Nations to Take the Lead,” Washington Post, August 11, 2024

The United States is pursuing a strategy of letting Mexico, Colombia and Brazil take the lead in pressuring Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to leave office.  (Maduro appears to have lost the country’s July 28 presidential election in a landslide vote despite his claims to the contrary.) Some experts say the Biden administration’s wait-and-see approach is “more realistic than a sudden rush to action,” write Post reporters Karen DeYoung and Samantha Schmidt. “Do we recreate our Cuba policy and make them the pariah, or do we do what’s possible to help them find some space and move in a better direction?” said an official in the administration of former President George W. Bush. More than six decades of sanctions haven’t ousted Cuba’s communist government. The three nations are also important to the U.S. in countering migration and the drug trade and the authoritarian influence on Latin America of Russia, China and Iran. All three have urged Maduro to release detailed vote tallies that show whether he actually won. Their “initiative needs some time to develop,” said a Biden administration official.  A person close to talks among the leaders of the three nations said it’s highly unlikely Maduro would agree to a transfer of power in the short term or a power sharing agreement with the opposition. The person said the talks could lead to some form of democratic space in Venezuela’s government institutions or competitive local and legislative elections in 2025. But that type of agreement letting Maduro be inaugurated next January for another term “would probably test U.S. willingness to take a back seat to the Latin American negotiators,” the Post story said. Meanwhile, Maduro is conducting a ruthless campaign of arresting and imprisoning demonstrators protesting his claim to have won. He has ordered Venezuelans to delete the WhatsApp app, a primary communication tool among those in the opposition. He also has banned for 10 days Venezuelans' use of X, formerly, Twitter.  The Biden strategies “have done nothing but empower narco-dictator Maduro and his thugs,” said Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) “It’s disgraceful the Biden-Harris Administration is unwilling to decare the victory of President-elect Edmundo González while the regime has increased the repression,” Rubio said. “Any negotiations are a continued lifeline to the narco-regime.” [Biden officials have called for publication of detailed voting results and a transition to González as president.]

“In Secret Talks, U.S. Offers Amnesty to Venezuela’s Maduro for Ceding Power,” Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2024

U.S. officials are trying to persuade Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro to give up power in exchange for amnesty after the emergence of evidence he lost in the country’s July 28 presidential election to opposition candidate Edmundo González by an overwhelming margin. A person familiar with the discussions said the Biden administration has “put everything on the table,” wrote Journal reporters Juan Forero, Patricia Garip and Kejal Vyas. The aim is to persuade Maduro to step down before his term ends in January. The U.S. may be open to not pursuing regime figures for extradition to answer to charges they’ve conspired to flood the U.S. with cocaine. “Maduro’s total grip on power stacks the odds against the Biden administration,” the Journal said. On the other hand, “Maduro has said that is open to talks as long as Washington shows him respect. At other times, he tells the U.S. to mind its own business,” the story said. Meanwhile, U.S. officials want Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, each of which has a leftist leader sympathetic to Maduro, to take a tougher stand than urging him to present evidence he won. After months of preparation, opposition volunteers managed to collect voting tallies from 83 percent of the voting machines used in the election, based on which they concluded Gonzalez won by almost 38 percentage points, winning 7.3 million votes compared to 3.3 million for Maduro. Maduro has refused to release those vote tallies on his own.  His officials claim they were contaminated by hacking. Tallies showed González won even in areas that appeared to be Maduro strongholds. 

“World Must Confront Maduro’s ‘Campaign of Terror’,  Venezuelan Opposition Leader Says,” The Guardian, August 11, 2024

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado says President Nicolás Maduro has unleashed “a campaign of terror” in order to hold onto power. Human rights activists say Maduro, two weeks after his fiercely contested claim to have won Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election, “has launched a ferocious clampdown designed to silence those convinced his rival Edmundo González was the actual winner,” wrote Guardian reporter Tom Phillips (see also next summary).  Machado, speaking from an undisclosed location where she is in hiding, said “what is going on in Venezuela is horrific. Innocent people are being detained or disappeared as we speak.” Machado campaigned for fellow opposition member González, a stand-in for her after she was prohibited from running. Independent analysts have concluded that Gonzalez actually won the election in a landslide. Maduro has named his crackdown Operacíon Tun Tun [“Operation Knock Knock”] – “a chilling reference,” Phillips said, “to the often late-night visits to perceived government opponents by heavily armed, black-clad captors from the intelligence services or police.”  Machado urged countries around the world to speak out. “Every single democratic government should raise their voices much more loudly,” she said. Maduro’s crackdown has exposed the “criminal nature” of the regime that knew it lost in a landslide. The Maduro government has decided that its “only option to stay in power is using violence, fear and terror against the population,” Machado said. Activists say the crackdown is virtually unprecedented in speed and scope. Most detainees appear to be from working-class areas that “rose up en masse against Maduro for the first time in the two days after his disputed claim to victory,” Phillips said. Asked whether she fears security forces will soon come for her and González, Machado said now in Venezuela “everybody is afraid that your door could be knocked [on] and your freedom could be taken away – even your life is threatened.” 

“How Venezuela’s Opposition Proved Its Election Win: 'A Brilliant Political Move’, The Guardian, August 10, 2024

The plan by the Venezuelan opposition to obtain an accurate tally of votes in the country’s July 28 presidential election involved meticulous planning over many months involving tens of thousands of people. The opposition executed it so well despite its complexity and the government’s anti-democratic tactics that it convinced independent analysts and the leaders of a number of foreign nations that President Nicolás Maduro’s lied when he said he won. An opposition activist said “we knew we needed not just to win but to prove that we won.”  Guardian reporter Tiago Rogero wrote that “the operation to gather the tallies was prepared over nine months, and, impressively, carried out in broad daylight under one of the world’s most authoritarian regimes.” To obtain an accurate count, opposition volunteers collected the tally of votes cast at 83 percent of the voting machines used in the election.  They scanned the tallies and uploaded them to a website. Some 5,000 workshops were involved in the training effort. Volunteers were taught electoral laws needed to observe the vote and had to learn how to use an app to report delays or irregularities at polling stations and to scan the QR code on each vote tally. In a number of cases, they had to  work their way past soldiers and police and Maduro loyalists who tried to deny them access to the vote tallies. “They tried,” said one activist, “but they failed in the end.” 

“Venezuela’s Maduro Boasts of 2,200 Arrests as Critics Warn of ‘Witch Hunt,’” Washington Post, August 9, 2024

Many Venezuelans are reporting a level of fear they say they’ve never felt before as authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro wages a campaign to capture and detain protestors against his claim to have won the July 28 presidential election.  They are refusing to leave their homes at night for fear of being stopped by the police, says Post reporter Samantha Schmidt. “They’re deleting social media posts and exchanging tips on how to wipe WhatsApp messages from their phones.” One woman said “we’re in survival mode.” She said national guard members went through a friend’s phone and then detained him. His family doesn’t know where he’s being held. She said that on August 7, she spotted officials at a bakery near her house asking people to show them their phones. “I can’t explain the amount of fear swirling around,” she said. “It’s having to pray every time you step outside your door, hoping you’ll make it back. It’s pure terror.” At least 23 people have been shot to death during protests since the election, according to a group that tracks homicides in Venezuela. Maduro says more than 2,200 people have been arrested. Opposition sources say he’s rounding up not only political leaders but also citizens who helped monitor the election “and anyone who has demanded that he accept his loss,” Schmidt says [A number of independent analysts say Maduro lost in a landslide].  Unlike in previous crackdowns when many people arrested were released within days or hours, most of those arrested now stay locked up, said Alfredo Romero, head of the legal rights group Foro Penal. Security forces also are promoting a phone line for citizens to report their neighbors. And Maduro said he’s transferring those newly arrested to two dangerous prisons that were emptied last year. “Report the fascist criminals to me, so I can go after them!” Maduro said.  

“Catalan Leader Puigdemont Evaded Arrest, Fled Spain, Party Official Says,” Washington Post, August 9, 2024

The exiled leader of the Catalan separatist movement made a brief on-stage appearance at a rally in Barcelona August 8 before disappearing and successfully eluding police who said they were hunting him as a fugitive. Carles Puigdemont, who had been in exile in Belgium for seven years, had said he would risk arrest and return to Spain to attend the swearing-in August 8 of the newly elected leader of Catalonia (see next story).  An official with Puigdemont’s separatist Together for Catalonia party said he was returning to Belgium. But a spokesman for the Catalan regional police said it would continue to search for Puigdemont until it had evidence he is no longer in Spain.  The spokesman said the police were poised to arrest Puigdemont as soon as he finished his speech but that his supporters surrounded him as he walked off the stage, making it impossible for police to approach. Puigdemont then got into a car to flee the area and the police gave chase but lost him, the police spokesman said. The getaway car was owned by a police officer, who was detained along with another police officer on suspicion of aiding the escape. Spain passed a law in May  permitting the return of a number of separatists who fled the country in 2017 after staging an unauthorized referendum on declaring Catalan independence. But its supreme court ruled in July that Puigdemont could not return under the law because he faces charges of embezzlement. 

“Carles Puigdemont Vows to Return to Spain in Headache for Ruling Coalition,” The Guardian, August 7, 2024

Fugitive Catalan separatist leader Carles Puigdemont says he’ll return to Spain August 8 after seven years in exile. Although  Spain’s parliament approved a law in May conferring amnesty on Catalan separatists who pursued an illegal referendum in 2017 to establish independence from Spain, Puigdemont did not qualify, the Spanish supreme court ruled in July. It said that was the case for Puigdemont and other separatists who are charged with misuse of public funds. The Spanish judiciary “is viewed – not only by Catalan separatists – as highly politicised and an unreformed relic of the Franco dictatorship,” wrote Guardian reporters Lili Bayer and Stephen Burgen. Puigdemont, who has been in self-imposed exile in Belgium for seven years, says he will be at the Catalan parliament in Barcelona as it swears in its new regional leader. “That to do so risks an arrest that would be arbitrary and illegal is evidence of the democratic anomaly that we have the duty to denounce and fight, not because we are pro-independence, but because we are democrats,” he said. Spain’s socialist prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, was able to cobble together a ruling coalition with separatist party support after agreeing to pursue enactment of the amnesty law. “The possibility of Puigdemont being jailed might complicate things for the Spanish government, although a change of government wouldn’t be in his interest at this juncture,” said Lola Garcia, deputy editor of La Vanguardia, a paper historically close to Puigdemont’s party. “But it won’t resuscitate the unity of the independence movement nor the independence process.” 

 

“Brazil, Colombia and Mexico in Talks with Venezuelan Government and Opposition on Election Crisis,” Associated Press, August  6, 2024

Brazil, Colombia and Mexico – three countries with leftist presidents – have been in constant communication with the autocratic leftist Maduro government in Venezuela and the opposition since the country’s fiercely disputed presidential election July 28. So said a senior Mexican official, who also told the Associated Press that the three countries are recommending to the two sides that they follow the laws of Venezuela and file any appeals in appearances before appropriate institutions. That “is a tall ask for the opposition, because Venezuela’s ruling party controls every aspect of government, including the justice system, and uses it to defeat and repress real and perceived opponents,” wrote AP reporters E. Eduardo Castillo and Regina Garcia Cano. The three countries have not come down decisively on either side of the disagreement over who won the election, which opposition candidate Edmundo Gónzalez won in a landslide according to independent analyses, contrary to the declaration that President Nicolás Maduro won by the electoral body he controls.  That declaration sparked big protests, followed by government arrests and killings of demonstrators. The three countries have staked out a position in which they are urging Venezuelan officials to release vote tally sheets, “considered the ultimate proof of results,” the AP said.  Opposition leader María Corina Machado told her supporters in a recorded message on social media August 6 that the effort to unseat Maduro has many phases and does not require people to always be demonstrating in the streets. “There are times to go out, times to meet, and thus demonstrate all our strength and determination and embrace each other, just as there are times to prepare, to organize, to communicate and to consult with our allies around the world, which are many,” she said. “An operational pause is sometimes necessary to ensure that all the elements of the strategy are aligned and ready for action.” A Colombian official expressed hope that the three governments will be able to publicly discuss any progress in the conversations with both sides either later this week or next week. A U.S. official declined to say whether the U.S. is now in talks with Maduro.

“Mexican Reporter is Gunned Down, even with a Police Security Detail at His Side,” New York Times, August 6, 2024

 

Celaya, the city in central Mexico in which dozens of policemen have been shot and killed in recent months, was the scene August 4 of another type of killing all too common in Mexico – that of a journalist, one protected by a police detail no less. Soon after finishing up a Facebook livestream covering a traffic accident near Celaya, 57-year-old Alejandro Martinez was gunned down in a police vehicle taking him back to the city by assailants who approached in another car. It wasn’t clear whether Martinez was the intended target of the attack or two transit police officers in the vehicle with him, both of whom were wounded. Martinez was known by some as the voice of Celaya, a once prosperous and peaceful city in the state of Guanajuato where “a vibrant auto industry drew families to live amid its beautiful colonial architecture,” wrote Times reporter Emiliano Rodríguez Mega. Martinez came to be described that way because of his coverage of the community and of crime. In 2022 he survived an assassination attempt, after which he no longer went to work without a government security detail and no longer covered shootings. But in the past few years the Jalisco New Generation cartel and the local Santa Rosa de Lima cartel have been warring for control of Guanajuato. At least 98 police officers have been killed in the state since the start of last year, 41 of them in Celaya, according to an estimate quoted by the Times. Reporters also are victims; in June the body of another Mexican journalist who went missing in 2020 was discovered in a well. “Mexico stands out as the most dangerous country in the Americas for reporters,” the story said, with an estimated 166 journalists killed in Mexico since the year 2000. According to Amnesty International, more than 650 journalists last November were receiving protection from the Mexican government. At least 10 of the journalists killed in Mexico were receiving such protection according to the organization Reporters Without Borders. 

“Venezuelan Opposition Leaders Urge Army and Police to Abandon Nicolás Maduro,” The Guardian, August 5, 2024

Venezuela’s opposition leaders have urged the country’s police and military to abandon President Nicolás Maduro and his “despicable interests” after what they termed an “avalanche” victory over him in the July 28 presidential election. The opposition leaders “are widely believed to have beaten” Maduro in that election, wrote Guardian reporter Tom Phillips. Edmundo González Urrutia and María Corina Machado made the statements in an open letter August 5  to Venezuela’s security forces. Venezuela’s attorney general responded by announcing a criminal probe of the pair for inciting security personnel to break the law. He said the National Electoral Council, which named Maduro the winner, was the only body qualified to name the winner. Police have arrested more than 2,000 people in protests after Maduro was declared the victor. Phillips said “human rights groups say at least 22 people have been killed by security forces or pro-government gangs.” Opposition leaders said “we appeal to the conscience of military and police officials to put themselves on the side of the people and of their own families. With this massive violation of human rights, the top brass is aligning itself with Maduro and his despicable interests.” They said Maduro “staged a coup – and he wants to make you his accomplices.” Venezuela specialists say they’ve yet to see any evidence that troops may be turning on Maduro.

“Maduro Lost Vote, Tallies Show,” Washington Post, August 5, 2024

A Washington Post analysis of votes cast in the July 28 Venezuelan presidential election adds to the body of independent analysis concluding that opposition candidate Edmundo González won in a landslide. Other analyses reaching that conclusion were carried out by AltaVista Research, the Associated Press, and the New York Times. AltaVista Research examined paper tallies from a much smaller sample of voting machines than the Post did – 971 voting machines compared to 23,720 in the case of the Post. AltaVista’s sample was selected to be representative of all voting machines and its conclusion that González won at least twice as many votes as President Nicolás Maduro was consistent with other findings. The Post said the tally sheets examined “represent 79 percent of the voting tables used on July 28. Even if Maduro won every vote on the remaining 21 percent, assuming a similar turnout, he would still fall more than 1.5 million votes shy of Gonzalez.” Daison Figueiredo, a professor at Brazil’s Federal University of Pernambuco, said “after analyzing our own data, seeing the opposition’s results and how they both match up, my conclusion is that we’re witnessing the largest electoral fraud in the history of Latin America. This is scientifically proven evidence, and we cannot have ideology overriding that.” 

“Assessing Likelihood of Maduro Yielding,” New York Times, August 5, 2024

What exactly would it take for democracy to win out in Venezuela following the July 28 presidential election in which, by many accounts, the country’s authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro lost in a landslide but fabricated vote totals and is in the process of stealing the election? The answer largely depends on government security forces, knowledgeable observers say.  “People need to believe there’s an actual possibility [Maduro] could fall,” said the author of “How Tyrants Fail,” Marcel Dirsus. “Only then will the men with guns either stand aside or change sides altogether.” Of late, those forces have arrested hundreds of people and the protests appear to be losing steam. The opposition has asked the military for its support to make sure the actual vote totals are respected, said Times reporter Jack Nicas.  He noted that top leaders of the security forces “struck a balanced tone in a public address” on election night when exit polls suggested a landslide win by opposition candidate Edmundo González. “The next day, the security forces’ response to mass protests was relatively less forceful than in the past.” But the following night, “as protests raged,” military leaders said at a news conference that they were siding with Maduro. “If any security forces are talking to the opposition, they will desperately try to guard that secret.” The refusal of some foreign countries including the U.S. to recognize Maduro as the winner could weaken his standing with security forces, as could large protests. But if Venezuela wants to become a full democracy, non-violent protest will be key. “When there is violence and bloodshed, the chances of a new dictatorship taking control increase substantially,” said Erica Frantz, a political science professor at Michigan State University. 

“Lula Assists the Maduro Steal,” Wall Street Journal Opinion Piece, August 4, 2024

 

In this opinion piece, Mary Anastasia O’Grady concludes that it’s a fallacy that Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has evolved and is a “vegetarian rather than a meat-eating man of the left.” On the contrary, “his treachery in Venezuela suggests he’s as red as raw steak. There’s nothing remotely civilized about putting the goal of ideological domination above the lives of millions of innocent Venezuelan civilians, as he is doing.” O’Grady identifies Lula as a committed member of the São Paulo Forum, which she calls the “modern-day equivalent of the Communist International.” Although Lula has urged that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro release voting machine vote tallies to prove his fiercely disputed claim that he won the country’s July 28 presidential election, Lula at the same time says that the Venezuelan courts should decide whether the Maduro claim is valid or that of the opposition showing he lost in a landslide. O’Grady asks: “Did they miss the past 25 years of Venezuelan politics, in which the regime destroyed all institutional independence?” O’Grady adds that Lula’s Workers’ Party has endorsed Maduro’s claim to have won. And she adds that when the Organization of American States voted on a resolution demanding the Venezuela publish the results of the vote to prove that there was no fraud, it failed by one vote when Brazil abstained. “Cuba, Russia, China and Iran are all on the side of Mr. Maduro and on the wrong side of history,” O’Grady concludes. “So is Lula. The sooner democrats in the region recognize that, the safer we will all be.” [Jeffrey Goldberg, editor of  The Atlantic, once described O'Grady as a writer "who never met a fascist Central American oligarch she didn't like."]

“Authoritarians Stand by Maduro and His Claim of Victory in Venezuela,” Washington Post, August 4, 2024

Venezuela has become the latest battlefield in the emerging global struggle not between left and right but between democracy and autocracy. In authoritarian president Nicolás Maduro, the United States and its allies “see a tyrant: an authoritarian socialist who has brought economic ruin to oil-rich Venezuela, persecuted and imprisoned political opponents, grown rich on narcoterrorism, and repeatedly and brazenly stolen elections,” writes Post reporter Terrence McCoy. On the other hand, “Russia, China, Iran, and Cuba see their type of guy.” Their support of Maduro has undermined international efforts to force him out of office after numerous independent assessments that he fabricated  results of the July 28 presidential election and was in fact thoroughly defeated by opposition candidate Edmundo González. “Maduro is largely immune from Western pressure,” said Oliver Stuenkel, an analyst with the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Brazil. Russia, for example, has pledged $5 billion to improve Venezuela’s oil refineries, $1 billion for its gold mining industry, and has sold Venezuela armored vehicles, tanks, air-defense systems and helicopters, other analysts note. Russian mercenaries have aided Maduro in the past and once again may be appearing on his security team. Maduro has been close to Cuban leaders and Cuba is his closest ideological ally. Cubans reportedly make up most of his security team. “But most crucial to Maduro’s survival has been Chinese patronage,” says McCoy. China is Venezuela’s main creditor and largest oil purchaser. Venezuela has $60 billion in loans from China, more than any other Latin American country. “What’s happening in Venezuela is a fight between a candidate clearly backed by Russia, China and Iran – and an opposition that is obviously supported by the United States and Europe,” said Ulf Thoene, a political scientist at La Sabana University in Colombia. “With every passing day, the likelihood grows that Maduro will remain in power.” 

“Huge Crowds Return  to Venezuela’s Streets to Protest Against Maduro,” The Guardian, August 3, 2024

Tens of thousands of protestors against the alleged attempt of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to steal last week’s election packed an avenue in the heart of Caracas August 3 to hear opposition leader María Corina Machado speak. “Today is a very important day,” she said. “After six days of brutal repression they thought they would silence us, frighten us and paralyse  us…[But] “we are going to go all the way.” The crowd chanted back that “we are not afraid!” The United States, Argentina, Uruguay and Peru have rejected the claim of Maduro’s electoral agency that he won the July 28 presidential election, instead recognizing opposition candidate Edmundo González as the winner. The leftwing governments of Brazil and Colombia have yet to recognize Maduro as the winner either. China and Russia have backed him, however. The demonstrations defying Maduro occurred despite a crackdown by his security forces in which hundreds of people have been arrested on terrorism charges and at least 11 killed, said Guardian reporters Tom Phillips and Patricia Torres. Many protestors expressed fear about a roundup of people by the government’s much feared counterintelligence unit that has been dubbed Operation Tun-Tun (knock, knock). “It’s like a horror movie,” said one demonstrator. Maduro also organized a protest August 3 that drew thousands of government supporters. Maduro told supporters that his government had captured 2,000 people who would be sent to high-security jails and subject to “maximum punishment.” But he faces continuing pressure to release the vote tallies from electronic voting machines. Tom Shannon, a veteran U.S. diplomat, said a network of interests has built up around Chavismo, the socialist movement that Maduro represents. He said it appears they are prepared “to endure significant international pressure and isolation.” Shannon warned “there’s going to be significant repression, I think.” 

“Venezuela Opposition Calls Protests as U.S. Backs Transition,” Bloomberg News, August 2, 2024

Opposition  leader Maria Corina Machado is calling for protests across Venezuela to defend what she sees as an election victory by opposition presidential candidate Edmundo González. “Washington’s declaration that Machado’s stand-in candidate [Gonzalez] clearly won the vote ratchets up pressure on Nicolas Maduro’s socialist regime,” Bloomberg News said. Both sides are urging supporters to take to the streets this weekend, August 3-4. That could lead to violent clashes. The government has already arrested hundreds of protestors and Machado’s party headquarters was ransacked overnight. Machado said on X that “we will all gather with our family, with our kids, our grandchildren, our grandparents in all of Venezuela’s cities” on Saturday morning [August 3]. It’s unclear whether she and González will actually attend protests, but foreign countries are becoming increasingly vocal in saying they defeated Maduro and the United States has called for a transition of Gonzalez into the presidency. Maduro has called for the pair to put in jail for decades. Machado said in the Wall Street Journal that she has gone into hiding and fears for her life (see story below).

“Maduro Lost Election in Venezuela, U.S. Says,” Washington Post, August 2, 2024

 

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is calling on Venezuela to begin a peaceful transition to a government headed by opposition candidate Edmundo González. Blinken said González won the July 28 election despite claims by President Nicólas Maduro to have won another term in office. “Given the overwhelming evidence, it is clear to the United States and, most importantly, to the Venezuelan people that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes,” Blinken said the evening of August 1. The opposition claims that Gonzalez won twice as many votes as Maduro, a finding supported by independent analyses as well as exit polling (see story below).  Post reporters noted, however, that “Blinken did not say the United States was recognizing González as Venezuela’s president.” Biden administration officials have attempted in recent days to discuss the election results with Venezuelan government officials, Post reporters said, attributing that information to an unnamed source. “Blinken’s announcement is likely to upset the Maduro government, the person said, and could halt the conversations.” Just before Blinken’s statement Maduro posted on X that he “has always dialogued, if the U.S. government is willing to respect the sovereignty and stop threatening Venezuela we can resume the dialogue.”  

“New Evidence Suggests Maduro Lost Decisively,” New York Times, August 2, 2024

Independent  analysts consulted by The New York Times upheld the credibility of voting tallies calculated by researchers hired by the Venezuelan opposition in the country’s July 28 presidential election. The opposition AltaVista research group concluded that opposition candidate Edmundo González actually defeated President Nicolás Maduro by  a margin of 66 percent to 31 percent, contrary to the declaration by Maduro election officials that the Venezuelan dictator had won by several percentage points. “The Times analysis shows that the election tallies provided  by the researchers are not compatible with a victory by Mr. Maduro, by any margin,” said Times reporters. AltaVista estimated the overall vote count by creating a random sample of 1,500 voting machines, which represented about 5 percent of the approximately 30,000 voting machines in Venezuela. Volunteers who observe the vote have a legal right to a copy of the vote tally for each voting machine after the polls close. AltaVista researchers “designed the sample to proportionally represent the overall geography and partisanship of the country,” the Times said. The sample precincts selected were representative of the nationwide vote in previous elections. “In three prior elections, the weighted results from these precincts were within two points of the final national result, a Times analysis found.” Estadão, a Brazilian newspaper, said Brazilian statisticians and political scientists also validated the AltaVista results, noted a July 31 English language story in the Rio Times. Both the Rio Times and New York Times stories noted that voting tallies could only be collected for about two-thirds of the 1,500 boxes in the sample, “yet this sample suffices for reliable projections,” the Rio Times said.

“I Can Prove Maduro Got Trounced,” by Maria Corina Machado, Wall Street Journal Opinion Piece, August 1, 2024

“I am writing this from hiding, fearing for my life, my freedom, and that of my fellow countrymen from the dictatorship led by Nicolás Maduro.” So states Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado following a Maduro crackdown to stay in power despite widespread indications he fraudulently claimed to have won the July 28 presidential election. Machado writes that Maduro lost to opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez 67% to 30%. “I know this to be true because I can prove it. I have receipts obtained directly from more than 80% of the nation’s polling stations.” Machado said “our people were like a tidal wave. They are tired of a quarter century of divisiveness, hatred and ideology. They want their families and dignity back.” Machado said that communities organized into more than 60,000 comanditos, small campaign units set up around kitchen tables across the country. “More than one million volunteers took on specific roles to prepare  for the election, training to defend every single vote that would be cast that day.” Voter turnout rose “like a rocket ship.” The volunteers, testigos who acted as witnesses in polling stations, were targeted by Maduro. “Orders were given to make their work impossible, to expel them from voting centers, to deny them the physical proof of the results.” But these orders were disobeyed by both the military and personnel with the Maduro-controlled National Electoral Council. “Against all odds, our testigos protected the voter receipts with their lives throughout the night.” Now, “state security forces have killed at least 20 Venezuelans, imprisoned more than 1,000, and forced 11 disappearances. Most of our team is in hiding, and after seven diplomatic missions were expelled from Venezuela, my aides in the Argentine Embassy are being protected by the government of Brazil. I could be captured as a I write these words.” Machado called on the international community to refuse to tolerate “a demonstrably illegitimate government.” Repression “must stop immediately, so that an urgent agreement can take place to facilitate the transition to democracy.” 

“Maduro Cracks Down on Venezuelans Disputing Reelection,” Washington Post, August 1, 2024

The Venezuelan government has begun arresting election poll watchers who volunteered to monitor voting in the country’s July 28 presidential election, opposition sources said. The government also has issued arrest warrants for leaders of the Venezuelan opposition, who assert that President Nicolás Maduro fraudulently claimed victory. Poll watchers have played a key role in the election, one opposition leader told the Post. “It was them who defended the physical voting tallies, which in turn helped us defend democracy in Venezuela. They were the ones who gave us the evidence that we had won. That’s why the government is attacking them.” Maduro is urging Venezuelans to report protestors on the government app VenApp. “We’re opening a new page in the app for all the Venezuelan population, so they can confidentially give me all the information about the delinquents who have threatened the people,” Maduro said. U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said July 31 “we have serious concerns about the reports of casualties, violence and arrests, including the arrest warrants that Maduro and his representatives issued today for opposition leaders.” Kirby added: “Alongside the international community, we’re watching and we’re going to respond accordingly.” The U.S. Embassy also urged an end to “threats and persecution” against six opposition campaign staffers who have been holed up in the Argentine Embassy in Caracas after warrants were issued for their arrest. Opposition sources said Venezuelan security forces have surrounded the embassy.

“Pro-Democracy Monitoring Group Denounces Venezuela Election,” New York Times, August 1, 2024

The Atlanta-based Carter Center, the only independent observer monitoring the July 28 presidential election in Venezuela, said the vote did not meet international standards and was undemocratic. Founded by former President Jimmy Carter, the center has monitored more than 100 elections around the world. The 17-person delegation it sent to Venezuela concluded that the election violated Venezuela’s own laws and that the government’s failure to release a vote count was a “serious breach of electoral principles.” The center said it “cannot verify or corroborate the results of the election.” Times reporter Frances Robles wrote that the center’s assessment is noteworthy because in the past Maduro "has often cited the number of observers present to prove that elections were fair.” In 2012 Carter praised improvements in Venezuela’s electoral process and called it the best in the world. But “they now have done a 180,” said Jose R. Cardenas, a former Bush administration official who follows Venezuela closely. Maduro accused the Carter Center of not questioning the last U.S. election after it was contested by former President Donald Trump. He defended the refusal to release the vote count by saying that the Venezuelan Supreme Court would have to make the decision whether to do so.